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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-03-19T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-03-19T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12298/-1
CME Note: CME start time is not completely accurate since it is a very faint partial halo. It was changed from 2017-03-20T06:00Z to 2017-03-19T18:24Z. The shock arrival is not clear since CME may have been combined and picked up by the HSS that arrived at Earth on 2017-03-21T00:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-03-23T08:51Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-03-24T18:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-03-20T07:03Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 305 
Longitude (deg): E22
Latitude (deg): S26
Half-angular width (deg): 31

Notes: Very faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO imagery difficult to analyse, so used STEREO-A imagery for analysis.  Bulk of CME expected to pass south of Earth, but a glancing blow from the periphery of the CME is possible.
Space weather advisor: Gareth Powell

Lead Time: 63.23 hour(s)
Difference: -33.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2017-03-20T17:37Z

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